Boston Supermarket Study Places Stop & Shop at #1

[retailisking]

According to Metro Market Studies, Stop & Shop, Market Basket, and Shaw's finish 1/2/3 for 2013. Stop & Shop maintains its lead, while Market Basket pulls away from #3 Shaw's. Despite its share gain, Walmart remains a relatively minor player as low store count and regulatory hostility frustrate its ambitions. Market Basket and Whole Foods are poised for future growth due to new builds and lease acquisitions respectively. Shaw's continues to fade as pricing issues and deteriorating store conditions cause customers to flee. It will be interesting to see if Cerberus can turn their situation around.

[Scrabbleship]

I wouldn't be all that overly concerned for Shaw's, their store count is high enough that it'd take something very traumatic for them to collapse. Market Basket's business model is so vertically integrated that it'd take a miracle for them to build in some of the more built-up areas which are keeping Shaw's relevant.

The real chain I may be worried about is Roche Bros, especially with Wegmans invading their turf. In 60+ years they've never closed a store for economic reasons (only to build larger replacements) but with Wegmans opening locations right near three of theirs it may be the start of bad times for them.

Ideal solution: Shared services agreement with Big Y. It'd help both get near-Massachusetts-wide exposure (the North Shore and the Islands the only holes) and would allow both chains to thrive under existing ownership.

[retailisking]

Here's a '08-'09 snapshot to give you an idea of the trend.
http://supermarketnews.com/retail-amp-financial/stop-shop-posts-share-gains-boston

I agree that the Shaw's store count is helping to prop up their share, but the slippage from strong second place to third place in the most recent snapshot is alarming. And if Cerberus ownership of Albertsons LLC is any indication, they will monetize a fair amount of real estate in the market, reducing their store count advantage and further eroding share.

Roche Bros. is planning to open a number of small-format locations in the Metro Boston area focused on perishables similar in size to the 8,000 square foot Whole Foods that just opened in a former Johnnie's Foodmaster. Although the Northborough location is a success, Wegmans hasn't yet opened a location in the Metro Boston area, so we really don't know if they will do the kind of volume that will justify a larger commitment.

[Scrabbleship]

Here's a '08-'09 snapshot to give you an idea of the trend.
http://supermarketnews.com/retail-amp-financial/stop-shop-posts-share-gains-boston

I agree that the Shaw's store count is helping to prop up their share, but the slippage from strong second place to third place in the most recent snapshot is alarming. And if Cerberus ownership of Albertsons LLC is any indication, they will monetize a fair amount of real estate in the market, reducing their store count advantage and further eroding share.

I think that you can only reduce store count so much before it works against you and I wonder if Cerebus would hold onto the leases of stores which SuperValu closed. I know for a while that Market Basket has wanted into the former Shaw's at Redstone in Soneham but Shaw's has held onto that lease for dear life since a Stop & Shop down Route 28 killed them.

If Cerebus decided to pull out if they lose their shirts, how they'll divest of Shaw's might be interesting given the union/non-union split and anti-trust concerns (Delhaize would have to divest many Maine stores, Ahold would have to divest most Rhode Island stores). Given past winding down of union operations, I could easily see someone forming a new chain for the unionized Shaw's locations a la the Fresh & Greens debacle for many of the former Maryland/DC Superfresh locations.

Roche Bros. is planning to open a number of small-format locations in the Metro Boston area focused on perishables similar in size to the 8,000 square foot Whole Foods that just opened in a former Johnnie's Foodmaster.

Smart move on their behalf and helps get their name out further especially given the Stop & Shop/Shaw's duopoly much of the market has. As abysmal of a chain Foodmaster was, they did serve something of a niche which Roche can fill while also taking on the Whole Foods' of the world.

Although the Northborough location is a success, Wegmans hasn't yet opened a location in the Metro Boston area, so we really don't know if they will do the kind of volume that will justify a larger commitment.

With Chestnut Hill about done, Burlington being built, and the announced Fenway location (on top of the Westwood saga), it'll be interesting to see how things shake out on that front.

I do wonder how Hannaford's future may be especially since their store count seems to be quite low inside 128 and there are few actual opportunities to grow inside there.

[retailisking]

http://supermarketnews.com/small-format-supermarket/roche-bros-plans-1st-small-format-store

[retailisking]

http://www.unionleader.com/article/20130702/NEWS02/130709901/0/FRONTPAGE